It's the All-Star break, which means it's time to make the mid-season assessment of Royal futility. The Royals are 10 games under .500, 12 games out of first in the Central. Looking at this team, you can tell it's not really even that close to being in the race, though.
That being said, this year's Royals team looks different than the last few incarnations, even though the results so far aren't drastically different. So as we sit here today, let's take stock of what the Royals have, and whether they could feasibly put themselves in a position to be in contention as early as one year from now.
LineupPositions covered: CF, LF, RF, 2B, 3B, DH, C.
Positions needed: 1B, SS.
The Royals are adequate at many positions. Their main problem is the lack of impact bats. They have one in Guillen, at the OF/DH spot. They expect Gordon, at 3B, and Butler, at DH, to become impact bats, as well. Mike Aviles has been a nice bat at SS, but his defensive shortcomings mean that the best option for him with the Royals is going to be for his to compete with Callaspo for 2B next year. DeJesus is having a nice year, Teahen is having a decent year, and Gathright is a nice option off the bench with his speed.
The best option is going to be for the Royals to try to get an impact bat at 1B. Teixera will be the most obvious free agent meeting this description this coming off-season.
SS presents a bigger problem. Pena gives no indication of ever being an adequate big league shortstop. The Royals also don't seem to have much SS depth in the farm system. Mike Moustakas, the high school shortstop drafted by the Royals last year, is not projected to be a big league shortstop. It looks like there may be
some adequate shortstop free agent possibilities next year, so maybe the Royals could
go that route to get a player for 3-4 years while they acquire and develop a SS through their farm system. Given Dayton Moore's history with the Braves, it would be interesting to see if he would try to get Furcal for that role.
PitchingPositions covered: 1/2SP, 3SP, 4SP, 5SP, CL, SU, LRP, MRP, MRP.
Positions needed: 1/2SP, MRP, MRP.
Provided Greinke doesn't suffer a drop-off in the second half, he looks like an ideal #2 starter, although you may be able to stretch him into a #1. Meche is looking more like the #3 starter he likely is, rather than the #1 starter he was tagged last year. Brian Bannister, Luke Hochevar, and Kyle Davies look like they are positioned to fight for the #4 and #5 spots, with the loser going into long relief in the bullpen.
In the pen, Soria looks to have the closer's role sewn up, but more on that a little later. Mahay has proven to be a good lefty option, and Ramon Ramirez looks solid in the setup role. Jimmy Gobble no longer looks like he has much of a future with this club, and Peralta doesn't seem to have the stuff to be considered a solid part of the future. We'll have to see how Horacio Ramirez and Robinson Tejeda perform the rest of the year, as well as Leo Nunez, who was off to a hot start before his injury.
The most pressing pitching need is going to be for the #1/#2 starter to pair with Greinke. The obvious candidates for this spot are CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets. You have to think that the Brewers will hold on to at least one of the two. The odds of the Royals being able to get the other probably aren't that great. Another approach that has been discussed is moving Soria to starter to see if he can become the guy to pair with Greinke at the top of the rotation. This would assumedly result in Ramirez or Nunez moving into the closer's role.
Although the Royals will need to get a couple of arms for the bullpen, this shouldn't be as tough a task. Between the arms in there, some up-and-coming arms in the minors, and the recent Royals strategy of shelling out a few million on a couple of free agent options, they should be able to cover those spots, and with the key spots in the bullpen possibly set, the Royals shouldn't have too much trouble maintaining a solid pen.
ConclusionSo, if the Royals can somehow come up with an impact bat at 1B, another top starter, and at least an average SS, and their returning players perform to expectations, then next year at this time they may be able to take a look at the standings and at least be in spitting difference. Of course, that's a lot of "ifs" for a franchise as futile as the Royals, so don't hold your breath.