THOUGHTS ON THE BIG 12 SO FAR

*  KU and Mizzou are both off to slightly surprisingly good starts.  However, it remains to be seen whether this is primarily schedule driven.  Both teams have two more winnable games this week, so they may be able to build enough momentum to play better than expected once they hit the meaty part of the conference schedule.  However, both midweek games should tell us a bit more about these teams:  KU goes into Nebraska to play the team that already beat Mizzou handily in Lincoln, and Mizzou goes on the road to play a K-State team that may be on a slight upsurge after getting its first conference win on the road at Colorado.  

*  Speaking of K-State, they're off to a slightly disappointing start in conference play.  Why only "slightly"?  Well, looking at their schedule to open conference play before it started, most folks would have expected a 2-3 record right now.  At 1-4, the Cats are only one game behind expectations.  More of the disappointment lies in how they've lost some of these games, but the Cats' number one problem right now is the lack of a #1 scoring option.  Clemente is at best a #2 guy, with Pullen, Brown, and Samuels #3 types.  Colon, Kent, and Sutton round out the top 7 as, at best, #4 guys.  With no primary scorer to serve as the focal point for the other team's defense, it becomes easier for other teams to lock down on guys who are having to score more than their offensive talent dictates.  Another thing hurting the Cats is some low BBIQ on display:  Clemente, especially, needs to learn to read a shot clock.  His inability to do so, along with Fred Brown's mental lapses on defense and offense toward the end of the game, nearly cost K-State their precious win at Colorado.

*  Finally, Oklahoma will be an interesting team to watch going forward.  In many ways, they've resembled the Kansas State team of last January, which got off to a hot start before fading a bit down the stretch.  Much of K-State's hot start was Clent Stewart's play, and they cooled off when he did.  Austin Johnson is now playing the same role for OU.  It's possible that Johnson may continue the torrid All-Big-12 pace he's set early in conference play, but if he does fall off, others on OU will have to pick up the slack to complement Griffin.  The first guys OU may look to could be Warren and Patillo...a freshman and a juco transfer.  

BIG 12 BASKETBALL CONFERENCE PLAY PREDICTIONS

Here are our predictions for how the Big 12 will end up in conference play.  These predictions are made by going through the conference schedule and picking each game's winner, then tallying up the totals.  (If you'd like to try your hand, you can find a useful tool at http://www.notnothing.net/bball/b12mbb.php).

1.  Texas  (13-3)  Longhorns look like the most complete team in the Big 12.

2.  Baylor (12-4)  This surprised us, but there they were.

3.  Oklahoma (12-4)  Like K-State last year, it depends on the big man's supporting cast.

4.  Kansas (11-5)  Some years, youthful KU might win the title, but OU and UT too strong.

5.  Missouri (10-6)  Tigers step up to maintain their relevance.

6.  Kansas State (8-8)  Cats could wind up anywhere from 9-7 to 6-10.

7.  Texas A&M (7-9)  Aggies are decent, but South* is tough.

8.  Oklahoma State (6-10)  They can score, but they're small.

9.  Iowa State (4-12)  With NU and CU, struggling to maintain relevance in North.

10.  Texas Tech (4-12)  South schedule beats down Tech.

11.  Nebraska  (4-12)  Not big enough, and those top teams get all those wins somewhere.

12.  Colorado (3-13)  Bzdelik has inside track on being first of recent hires to be canned.

As a whole, the Big 12 seems down this year, although there is more parity at the top.  You can imagine a scenario in which any of the top 5 teams above wins the league.  If the results break down close to this, the Big 12 should get its top 5 into the NCAA tourney, with K-State, A&M, and OSU as possibilities for the NIT.  

*  Yes, there are no divisions in Big 12 basketball.  However, schedules depend on North or South, and consequently help determine results due to the unequal strength, so we'll still use it as a shorthand.

TODAY'S REQUIRED READING: SNYDER'S IMPACT

This post on the FanNation site does a nice job of exploring Bill Snyder's impact on Thursday's national title game, discussing how Snyder has impacted the college game through his coaching tree and coaching philosophies.  The fact that Snyder, a guru in his own right, is bringing in two offensive coaches from a Utah team that just trashed Alabama in the Sugar Bowl, when coupled a Vic Koenning-led defense, should give any K-State fan reason for optimism for progress in the next couple of years.

Incidentally, Gus Malzahn, the offensive coordinator at Arkansas when the "Wildcat offense" was installed there, stated during an interview at the GMAC Bowl tonight that the offense was named after K-State, presumably because of the souped-up single-wing Snyder developed for Michael Bishop.

THE LITTLE MAN COMES UP BIG

Congrats to Olathe North and K-State product Darren Sproles on scoring the winning overtime touchdown for the San Diego Chargers in their playoff victory over the Indianapolis Colts tonight.  You can see a cool fan video of the TD from the stands on YouTube...note how the volume increases once Sproles turns the corner, and then gets cranked to 11 when he slips by the last defender.  Would have been a cool game to see in person.

WHITHER THE CHIEFS OFFENSE?

Now that the end of the Chiefs' season is mercifully upon us, those eyes that hadn't yet turned have now begun looking towards next year, as the post-Carl Peterson era begins.  The first order of business is to locate a new GM, then determine the future of Herm Edwards.  At that point, the Chiefs will actually be able to turn to the task of what changes they want to make to the on-field product.

One of the main questions will be the future of the offense.  Although Tyler Thigpen was a bit less impressive at the end of the season, he's presumably earned a shot at the starting job next year.  If the Chiefs intend to continue using the spread sets they installed this year, they could draft Tim Tebow after the first round to provide some competition to Thigpen.  If Tebow didn't pan out as a quarterback, he could probably be turned into an effective slot receiver, a la Matt Jones.

A quick aside regarding the terminology used to describe the Chiefs' offense this year, since local sports talking heads seem to have an especially difficult time describing it consistently, using terms like spread, shotgun, and pistol interchangably:  a spread offense can be run out of any formation that has no more than 2 RB/TE combined.  The spread involves 3, 4, or 5 WR that are "spread" across the line of scrimmage from sideline to sideline (although WR bunch sets will occasionally be used, usually to run a WR screen).  The shotgun merely means that the quarterback does not take the snap under center, but rather from a position usually about 5 yards behind the center, although some offenses will have the QB a yard or two deeper or a yard or two closer to the center.  One such offense is the pistol offense, which originated at the University of Nevada a few years back.  In the pistol, the QB lines up about 3 yards behind the center, and the running back lines up directly behind the quarterback, giving the appearance of an I formation.  The purpose of the pistol is to provide more of a power, straight-ahead running game than can be used out of a normal shotgun formation, in which the running back is positioned at the side of the QB and most running plays begin side-to-side rather than straight ahead.

Thus, spread offense principles can be used in a single-back formation with the QB under center, or a shotgun formation, or even, more rarely, a double back formation with no TE.  Conversely, a shotgun offense and the pistol offense are not synonymous with a spread offense, although they can be run as such. 

When the Chiefs modified the offense for Thigpen in the middle of the season, they began with some shotgun spread and fairly quickly moved to pistol spread formations, which made sense with Larry Johnson as the running back, as the pistol's straight-ahead running game complements his skill set.

However, in the last few games the Chiefs moved away from the pistol back to basic shotgun spread, with the QB lined up deeper and the RB lined up beside him.  Unsurprisingly, this negated Johnson's straight-ahead ability, and his effectiveness declined sharply.  Time and again, he was caught for a loss running side-to-side out of the shotgun.

Some have questioned whether the spread formations employed by the Chiefs can be successful in the long term in the NFL.  While NFL defenses will continue to improve against the formations, there is no question in our mind that the formations can meet with continued success as long as they are being run by players who are proficient in the systems.  NFL defenses are built around size and speed, and spread principles help to negate both; witness the neutralization of Miami's usually-effective speed rush at the end of the season.  

One key for the Chiefs will be what type of running back they use next year.  It seems doubtful that the perpetually-discontented Larry Johnson will return, perhaps leaving Jamal Charles as the starter.  Charles is more suited to the side-to-side running style needed to run out of the regular shotgun formation.  However, if Johnson or a similar back is named the starter, the Chiefs should consider returning to the pistol formation.

Of course, the new GM and possible new head coach may very well decide to draft a traditional pro-style quarterback and install him into a traditional system as they continue to rebuild these team, leaving the question of the long-term efficacy of shotgun spread offenses in the NFL to be determined at a later date by a different team.