GET PUMPED (?)

Hey K-State fans, here's a video to get you ready for this afternoon's Elite Eight game. It's, uh...something.

KNOCKOUT

Whitlock is right.  (There's a phrase I don't often utter.)

This game, in so many ways, felt like 1998.  The path seems to clear for a chance to advance toward the national championship.*  Early on, the game appears in control for K-State against an overmatched opponent.  K-State's largest lead in both games?  That's right, 15.

But then the other team comes back.  K-State doesn't fold, though...fighting and clawing, despite losing the momentum, to take the game to overtime.  Double overtime.  Just like 1998. 

I thought that was it.  I'd seen this story end before, and it wasn't pretty.  Thing is, I didn't give Frank and his guys enough credit.

They grabbed the game late in the second overtime and refused to let it go.  Despite all his heroics, Jordan Crawford would be no Sirr Parker for the Musketeers this night, driving a dagger into the Wildcats' dreams.  Instead, there would be only a meaningless, desperation three heaved by a Xavier player at the bucket as time expired and the Wildcats summoned what strength remained to lift their arms in victory. 

Like 1998, we got a game that will live on in the future as part of many "greatest games" lists.  But this time, K-Staters will be able to smile when they're reminded of the game.

- - - - - -

• Thank you, Gus Johnson.  Who else could have called that game?  Absolutely fantastic.

• Be sure to check out Poz's thoughts on the game, including his tangential take-down of the BWW ad.  That ad never fails to annoy me.  The first time I saw it, I had exactly the same thought as Poz:  what kind of moron Boston fan would rather see the game go to OT rather than wrap up the win against New York?  Look, I'm thrilled that K-State was part of one of the greatest tourney games in history last night, and if you'd have guaranteed me that result before OT, I'd have said "Play on!"  Because there was no such guarantee, I would have much preferred K-State to win in regulation.

*  Look, Butler is a great team and is going to be a heckuva challenge for K-State, especially with the fatigue factor from 2OT.  However, the matchup still seems better for K-State than the larger, more athletic Orange, for the purposes of this analogy.

SOME THINGS CHANGE, SOME THINGS DON'T

K-State is in Salt Lake City for the Sweet Sixteen.  KU is home after losing in an early round as a top seed.  The first hasn't happened in nearly 30 years.  The second hadn't happened in four.

Last week, we tweeted our thoughts on KU's chances.  In talking with friends in the last few days leading up to the tourney, we said we thought KU's best chance of losing would be in the Sweet Sixteen.  All year long, the Jayhawks had played best when the stakes were highest.  But they had also seemed to take some games for granted.  Our thought was that the Sweet Sixteen would probably be the best KU loss combination of being too far away from a "meaningful" tournament game while still being against an opponent with the talent to knock off the Hawks.  The second round was the second most likely.

It's been interesting to see some local and national commentators join our opinion that one possible factor in the Jayhawks' early exit is the preferential treatment they received from officials during conference play.  Sherron Collins' repeated whining to the officials during the UNI game couldn't have helped the Hawks focus on the task at hand.  With more even officiating in conference, the Jayhawks could easily have lost at least two additional conference games.  Learning how to deal with even--or even hostile--officiating during conference season (including a resulting loss or two, if such had occured), could have provided the Jayhawks with a tougher mental attittude to deal with an opponent who refused to back down and who wasn't "dealt with" by Jayhawk-friendly officials.

Meanwhile, the K-State Wildcats took care of business against North Texas and BYU, and now face a Xavier team that already lost to the Wildcats by 15 earlier this season.  The local media has been trying to find some good angles on this game but it's proven more difficult than expected.  The previous matchup was so long ago that both teams seem to have changed since then.  Xavier hates Bob Huggins, but his influence over this K-State program is fading as Frank Martin emerges as a national coaching celebrity.  K-State has played the chip on the shoulder all season long, but that's difficult to do against a team that already upset Pitt and that likes to play the no respect card itself.  K-State's status as a media darling makes it all the tougher to claim "no respect."

We do expect one thing from tomorrow's game:  war.  Both teams are extremely physical.  The previous game was ugly, and, while the teams have changed, their physicality has not.  The difference in the game will be which team makes free throws and which team has a guard step up to hit a few big outside shots.

Our pick to win?  Xavier.  We've heard a lot of K-State players talk about playing for the national championship over the last couple of days, but that's 3 wins away.  You can talk all you want about respecting an opponent you've already beaten, but these are college kids, and in the back of their mind will be the fact that they beat this team fairly easily on a night that no one shot very well.  K-State fans have been strangely confident about this game tomorrow, focusing on Syracuse and the status of Arinze Onuaku.  Vegas and the experts are all picking K-State to win handily.  Xavier has talent, and now they have a huge "no respect" card.  Additionally, Xavier has prior experience in this atmosphere from the last two years' Sweet 16's, while K-State's players do not.  To us, this smells like a tailor-made upset opportunity for the Musketeers.  This game should come down to the wire, and Jordan Crawford may push them past.

THE NIGHT BEFORE MADNESS

Twas the night before madness, when all through the land
Not a Jayhawk was sleeping, not even the band.
The Wildcats were reviewing game notes with care,
With hopes that the trophy soon would be theirs.

The Hoyas were nestled all snug in their beds,
While visions of One Shining Moment danced in their heads.
And Buckeyes and Panthers and Bear- and Bobcats
Were trying to settle their brains and catch a quick nap.

When from the TV there arose such a clatter,
They all sprang from their beds to see what was the matter.
To their remotes they flew like the Racers,
Turned up the volume and gathered coaches and players.

The lights on the pate of the excitable man
Shined brightly as he dismissed the Spartans.
Then, he shouted what teams should be feared:
The Blue Devils! The Badgers! And Huggs' Mountaineers!

The predictions they came, so loud and so quick
They knew right away they were listening to Dick.
He discoursed on Monarchs and then Musketeers,
Cowboys and Owls and Orange Volunteers.

"Now Miners! now Gophers! now, Cougars and Spiders!
On, Longhorns! On, Huskies! on, Gators and Tigers!
To the top of heap, to the top of your brackets!
Don't overlook Lobos or those Yellow Jackets!"

As Mountain Hawks that on wild wind currents fly,
And like great Eagles, mount to the sky,
So thus did Dick's voice ever rise
As he rang in the tournament with his loud cries.

And then, in a twinkling, Digger spoke up,
Warning that the Aggies could make things tough
For the Boilermakers, or maybe the Bears,
Or even the Cardinals, if they went on a tear.

Digger was dressed all in green, from his tie to his pen
Honoring the Irish, whom he coached way-back-when.
He set forth his picks, and spun quite a tale
Of upsets by Saints, Bulldogs and Gaels.

His eyes-how they twinkled! His gestures how strong!
As he told Dick and Jay how their picks were wrong!
He spoke of the Terrapins and the Big Red
But by now all the teams were heading to bed.

The Colonials' hearts were held tight by their teeth
They faced quite a task, but 'twould be a relief
To finally get on the court on the morrow
And, like the Catamounts, face inevitable sorrow.

The Commodores were jollier, and for good reason,
The next day was unlikely to end their season,
But Cards, Rebs, and Noles found it tough to unwind,
As they all were playing the dreaded 8-9.

The Grizzlies spoke not a word, as they were fourteens,
And thus were unlikely to live out their dreams,
And likewise the Aztecs and Terriers offered their prayers
But deep down, they were just glad to be there.

So they all lay and wondered, from Gauchos to Deacons,
Would the next game be the last of their season?
Or could it be possible, someway, perchance,
That they'd be the winners of the Big Dance?

(Note:  Yep, we tried to get all the mascots referenced in there.)

KU WRAPS UP JAMAR SAMUELS, BIG 12 TOURNEY TITLE

"Jump ball!"

BIG 12 TOURNEY TIME

Getting ready to head down to the P&L in KC for the Big 12 tourney.  Should be posting Twitter updates throughout the day.

Also, if you're a K-State fan looking for a high-basketball IQ K-State podcast, try the one from goemaw.com.  You can also search iTunes for "goemaw" to download or listen. 

SIX STRAIGHT

With their impressive victory over #5 K-State on Wednesday, the Kansas Jayhawks clinched sole possession of this year's Big 12 regular season championship.  This marks the sixth straight year the Hawks have won at least a share of the Big 12 regular season title.

Some local talking heads have been discussing this impressive achievement over the last couple of weeks and have raised the question of what this streak says about the overall quality of the Big 12.  Some have suggested it means the Big 12 has not been a very good basketball conference over the past half-decade, since no team has risen up to challenge Kansas over that time.

That's the wrong analysis.  Kansas' success at winning the crown has been due to three factors:  Kansas' consistent high level of play, the weakness of the Big 12 North, and the Big 12 scheduling/ranking rules.

The first factor speaks for itself.  Bill Self has done a nonpareil job of bringing top talent into Lawrence and getting that talent to coalesce into a winning college basketball team. 

The remaining two factors have combined to permit Kansas to enjoy this 6 year streak.  While the Big 12 North has improved over the last couple of years, it has consistently failed to provide the same challenge to Kansas that the top South teams must overcome. 

Three times over the past 6 years, a South team has claimed the #1 seed in the Big 12 tournament by virtue of defeating Kansas during the regular season.  (Oklahoma in 2005, Texas in 2006 and 2008.)  However, because of the unbalanced schedule, Kansas is still awarded a share of the regular season title despite losing the head-to-head matchup.

While KU was getting to feast upon Jim Wooldridge's Wildcats, Wayne Morgan's Cyclones, and Ricardo Patton's Buffaloes, Rick Barnes and the Texas Longhorns were having to face Billy Gillipsie's Aggies, Bobby Knight's Red Raiders, and Kelvin Sampson's Sooners.  There seems little doubt that had Kansas had to play three additional South teams on the road in these years, they would have wound up with more losses than the Longhorns or Sooners would have incurred by playing at three additional North teams.  With those additional losses, KU would have won half the number of titles over the last 6 years:  three instead of six.  Texas would have won two and would be regarded as a more equal "challenger" to KU's conference supremacy.

Kansas' achievement remains impressive, and the quality of the Big 12 as a whole should not be condemned for the weakness of one division and the peculiarities of the Big 12's scheduling.

FIVE THOUGHTS ON TONIGHT'S TOP-FIVE SUNFLOWER SHOWDOWN

5.  If this was a movie we were just settling in to watch, we'd all think we had a pretty good idea how it was going to develop and end.  KU run at some point, K-State players pressing just a little too hard, Collins or Aldrich and someone like Henry or Marcus Morris having great games, ending in a KU win by about 15 points.  If it's going to end differently, then Frank Martin and the Wildcats are going to have to play against type. 

4.  Perhaps the biggest indicator that the Cats' chances are low in this one is the paradigm shift that a Wildcat win would force.  Consider:  were the Cats to win tonight and follow that up with what should be an easy win on Saturday against Iowa State, the polls next week would most likely feature K-State at #3 and KU at #4 or #5.  K-State would have overtaken and passed the Jayhawks in the polls after the conclusion of college basketball's regular season. 

That just doesn't seem right.  Sure, it seems likely that at some point over the next few seasons, K-State will be ranked ahead of KU.  Next year might be a good opportunity, with what K-State looks to return versus what KU will likely lose.  That scenario makes sense.  What doesn't make sense is for K-State to rise above KU this late in a season during which KU has been one of the dominant players and a favorite for the national championship. 

3.  The past few days may well be the peak for K-State this season.  Making the Elite Eight would be a good achievement in the NCAA tournament, but the Cats would have to make the Final Four to surpass their current perception as the #5 team in the country.

2.  Given the quality play of K-State, KU, and Mizzou over the past couple of years, and the Big 12's foresight in scheduling the regular season so that the three would play each other in the final week of the Big 12 season, it's difficult to understand why greater TV coverage was not planned for games that should have seemed likely to heavily impact the conference race, let alone any national implications.

1.  Frank Martin and his team have a helluva opportunity game tonight, with little apparent downside (barring a 25-point blowout).  With a win, they could make a tremendous statement about their program, position themselves for a #1 seed in the NCAA tournament, and force a regional and national paradigm shift.  While the chances of a win seem remote, the fact that they've put themselves in this position at all says a great deal about the quality of the program that Martin is resuscitating in Manhattan.

FOUL PLAY?

This is how to respond to the 34-13 free throw differential in the K-State/Mizzou game on Saturday:

Another key deficit in Saturday’s game was the free throws. A lot of Missouri fans will blame “home town refs” for the numbers in the first chart. (I mean, c’mon, K-State got 21 more FT attempts.) Lord knows there were times in the second half when I was cursing at the TV, blaming the officials for ticky-tack calls. The intentional foul on Marcus Denmon sticks out as especially questionable.


Here comes the ‘but’. K-State may have had a few calls go their way (what home team doesn’t get a few calls in a conference game?), BUT the Wildcats were also clearly more motivated to go to the rim all night. It was free throws that kept them in the game in the first half when their shooting percentage was hovering near single digits. And it was free throws that fended off a Missouri comeback attempt in the second half. On the road, in conference, you have to earn your right to go to the stripe. That is, you have to make a concerted effort to take the ball to the rim or feed down to the low-block and get high-percentage looks. Missouri did not get the calls on Saturday because they rarely did those two things.

. . . .

It is important to note that this tangent on FTs is NOT a rant on Big 12 officiating. Remember, I said a road team has to earn their way to the free throw line. And Missouri consistently does not earn their free throw attempts in road losses.

. . . .

When the play is rough and slow and methodical, Mizzou does not seem to adjust. And earning trips to the free throw line, more than anything, is about a team’s adjustment to the referees’ tendencies on a given night. It’s like when a pitcher is able to figure out an umpire’s strike zone early in a baseball game. K-State figured out that taking the ball to the rim was going to get them foul calls. (Plus, Mizzou had two REALLY dumb fouls on Jacob Pullen three-pointers.) In other words, on Saturday K-State figured out the strike zone. MU did not. Of course, K-State has been figuring out the strike zone all season as they lead all 347 teams in Division I in free throws attempted per game.

This is how not to respond to the free throw differential on Saturday:

And don't try to tell me K-State attacked the rim more while MU simply settled for jumps shots. Kansas State took 18 three-point shots, Missouri 19.

Nor is this:

“I thought we attacked the basket. We just didn’t get to the free throw line. How about that? You write that how you want to,” Missouri coach Mike Anderson said, clearly frustrated with the referees.

Actually, Mike and Mike, Mizzou's failure to attack the basket was exactly what caused the free throw differential on Saturday. (To be fair, DeArmond's overall post wasn't that bad, just that sentence.)

But before we get to that, let's take a look at the actual difference in fouls on Saturday.  24 personal fouls were called on Mizzou, 19 on K-State.  Four of those fouls, and eight of the free throws, came while Mizzou was fouling K-State in the last 1:30 of the game.  So the real differential we're talking about is 20 fouls on Mizzou compared to 19 on K-State, with a free throw difference of 26-13.  At least as far as fouls called go, that's a pretty evenly-called game.

Admittedly, it's still a doubling-up of the free throws.  However, contrary to DeArmond's and Anderson's contentions, the differential was almost entirely due to the difference in playing style between Mizzou and K-State.

The officials actually called the game pretty consistently on Saturday.  They were letting a lot of stuff go under the basket, while calling things tighter on drives to the hoop from outside the lane.  Mizzou benefitted from the former for a large portion of the first half, when K-State was trying to pound the ball inside with Kelly and Colon, and the Mizzou defenders hammered down on them, causing K-State historic levels of offensive frustration.

Then, as pointed out in the first excerpt above, K-State adjusted.  The guards and the big men started driving to the hoop from outside the lane, and started to get foul calls.

Mizzou did not adjust.  They stayed in their usual offensive system, which consists of drives that end up short of the hoop for a pull-up jumper or kick to the outside.  Mizzou does this because their big men aren't very big.  When they did try to take it to the hoop, they were met by bigger, more physical K-State defenders, who were able to defend without fouling.  Most of the time, though, Mizzou stuck with their mid-range jumpers and kick-outs, and therefore they did not get the shooting fouls called that K-State did.

(Mizzou's frenetic defensive style also plays into this somewhat.  When you check and slap as much as Mizzou does on perimeter defense, you're daring the officials to call fouls.)

Mizzou played a tough game on Saturday and should hold their heads up high.  They weren't the victims of an officiating injustice, however, and should drop that talking point.